Chicago 2027: Who’s lining up to run for mayor
Alexi, Susana, Rahm, Ray, Paul, Anna. Who will it be? Brandon is weak. The vultures are circling.
As someone who’s covered Chicago politics for years, including as a political reporter focusing on LGBTQ issues at Chicago Phoenix, I’ve never seen so much buzz about a mayor’s race that’s still two years away.
But when the current mayor’s approval rating drops to just 14 percent, like recent polls show for Brandon Johnson, it gets politicians very excited about running against him.
I’ve watched four different mayors in this city, and I can tell you that Johnson’s situation looks really bad.
He’s only been in office for 19 months, but people are already lining up to replace him in 2027.
That tells you everything you need to know about how voters feel about his job performance.
The big names from state government
Alexi Giannoulias is probably the most interesting person thinking about running. He’s the Illinois Secretary of State right now, and he’s won elections across the whole state twice, first as state treasurer, then in his current job. That’s something most Chicago politicians can’t say.
What makes Giannoulias special is that business leaders, union bosses, and community groups are all asking him to run. That’s rare in Chicago politics.
He looks polished, sounds smart, and could bring together different groups that are fed up with Johnson’s far-left politics.
The only problem?
No state official has ever successfully become Chicago mayor. But with his name recognition and ability to raise money, he’d start as the favorite.
Susana Mendoza is another state official looking at the race. She’s the Illinois Comptroller, which means she handles the state’s books. That gives her credibility on money issues, something Chicago voters care a lot about given the city’s budget problems.
Mendoza already ran for mayor once in 2019 but didn’t make it past the first round. Still, political insiders tell me she’s “95 percent in” for 2027.
She understands Latino voters, has connections throughout the city, and could be the experienced alternative to Johnson.
Rahm’s possible comeback
Rahm Emanuel might be the most interesting possibility of all.
The former mayor just finished being America’s ambassador to Japan, and he recently said he’s not “done with public service.”
That has everyone in Chicago politics talking.
Emanuel was mayor from 2011 to 2019, so he actually knows how to run the city. He also has national connections that could help him raise money and get attention.
The big question is whether voters have forgotten about the controversies from his time as mayor, especially how he handled the Laquan McDonald police shooting case.
If Emanuel runs, he’d change everything about the race immediately.
Aldermen who want to move up
Bill Conway represents the rich 34th Ward downtown and has become the voice of business-friendly politics on the City Council.
His family has a lot of money, so he wouldn’t have to worry about fundraising. That lets him focus on building support.
Conway’s challenge is that most people outside downtown don’t know who he is.
But in a crowded race, having unlimited money and business backing could be enough.
Brendan Reilly from the 42nd Ward has been calling Johnson “woefully unprepared” and says he’s controlled by the “radical left.”
Reilly has been on the City Council for a long time, so he knows city issues well. But like Conway, he’s not well-known outside his downtown area.
Ray Lopez from the 15th Ward might be the most interesting City Council possibility.
Lopez is considered a potential candidate for the 2027 race and has a history of taking on mayors.
He was one of Mayor Lightfoot’s biggest critics and actually announced he was running for mayor in 2023 before dropping out.
What makes Lopez appealing is his willingness to fight and his unique background.
He represents working-class neighborhoods like Back of the Yards and West Englewood, and he’s never been afraid to speak his mind.
As an openly gay Mexican American, the first openly gay Latino elected to office in Illinois, Lopez could build a diverse coalition while also serving as a strong defender of LGBTQ rights at a time when those protections face federal challenges.
His problem is that he recently lost a congressional race badly, which might hurt his mayoral chances.
But his combination of progressive social views and more moderate positions on issues like public safety could appeal to voters looking for something different.
The veteran politicians
Paul Vallas just won’t go away. I kinda want him to.
He’s run for mayor multiple times and came close to beating Johnson in 2023.
Voters who care most about crime and city finances like him.
The question is whether he has the energy for another campaign at his age.
Anna Valencia is the City Clerk and has won citywide twice.
Political sources tell me she’s “definitely looking at it.”
But she lost badly to Giannoulias when they both ran for Secretary of State in 2022, which makes you wonder if she can beat him in a mayor’s race.
Other names being mentioned include Janice Jackson (former schools chief), Luis Gutiérrez (former congressman), and Kam Buckner (state representative who got just 2 percent when he ran for mayor in 2023).
The LGBTQ rights factor
Having covered LGBTQ political issues extensively, I’m particularly watching how civil rights protections might influence this race.
With President Trump in office and his administration’s clear opposition to LGBTQ rights, we could see new attempts to force cities like Chicago to roll back local protections through federal legislation or court challenges.
Trumpism at the national level makes the mayor’s race more important for LGBTQ voters and allies.
Chicago has strong local protections, but if Trump-backed legislation challenges municipal rights and the U.S. Supreme Court sides with those efforts, the next mayor will need to be a strong defender of civil rights.
This context makes candidates like Ray Lopez particularly interesting. As an openly gay Latino politician, he’d bring personal stakes to defending LGBTQ protections.
But it also means all candidates will likely face questions about how hard they’ll fight to protect the city’s civil rights ordinances against federal pressure.
Why this race could be huge
Several things are coming together to make 2027 potentially crazy for Chicago politics.
Johnson’s terrible approval ratings have opened a door that ambitious politicians rarely see. The city’s problems, crime, budget troubles, people leaving, need solutions that many think require completely different leadership.
The fact that so many people are already thinking about running tells you how weak Johnson looks.
When even politicians who lost badly in recent elections think they have a shot, that’s a bad sign for the incumbent.
This could end up being a free-for-all with candidates from across the political spectrum.
That might help the strongest candidate rise to the top, or it might split up the anti-Johnson vote enough that he squeaks by.
What’s next
Looking at all these potential candidates, what strikes me most is how Johnson’s struggles have created opportunities for politicians with very different backgrounds and ideas.
Whether Chicago voters want experience (Emanuel, Vallas), statewide success (Giannoulias, Mendoza), business connections (Conway), civil rights defenders (Lopez), or other approaches, the 2027 race is shaping up to be the most important mayoral election in years.
With federal attacks on local civil rights protections likely under the Trump administration, Chicago’s next mayor will need to be more than just a competent administrator. They’ll need to be a fighter willing to defend the city’s values against federal pressure.
Johnson has two years to turn things around, but based on how many people are already circling, it’s going to be an uphill battle.
This race is worth watching from day one.